Everyday Murders in Mexico Fall 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Data

The typical count of daily killings per month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new official statistics. But, public safety specialists have warned that homicide figures might not point to enhanced national stability.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President began the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had in these past months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the lowest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily military operations to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key components of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety researchers urged caution that using murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for estimating the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also problematic because it may hide days when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.